These fascinating poll data were put up by Nate Silver at  They show the major poll averages from three weeks before the October 15th Democrat debate and now, three weeks after.  Take a look and see what you think:


There is one key finding here: virtually nothing changed.

The closest you can come to significant movement is that Peter Buttigieg went from being a distant fourth with 4.9% of the vote to being a distant fourth with 6.7% of the vote.

If these polls are correct, therefore (always a bit “if”), the debates have barely moved the dial.

In fact, other than Buttigieg’s little jump, the most interesting finding is that if you add up all the pluses and minuses, candidates have gone up by a total of 5.8%, and down by a total of just 2.5% – which means that about 3.3% of the respondents have gone from no choice to a preference for one or another of the candidates.

When that’s the biggest difference of an entire poll, it means nothing much happened….

…which is what we said in the first place.


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