Kentucky and Oregon have their primaries on Tuesday.
A quick look at both:
Kentucky
Very little polling has been done. The last poll, taken over a month ago by Public Policy Polling (PPP), showed Hillary Clinton with a 5% lead over Bernie Sanders: 43% – 38%.
But Sanders has won both primaries in May – Indiana and West Virginia. And like West Virginia, Kentucky, has a significant amount of coal mining country – which, to say the least, Ms. Clinton has alienated herself from.
It’s a good bet Sanders will win here.
Oregon
Oregon’s primary is restricted to registered Democrats. And they tend to skew older than the general population, thus more toward Clinton.
Like Kentucky, there has been little polling here. But the latest poll, released this past week, shows Hillary Clinton ahead by 15%: 48% to 33%.
However, the pollster, John Horvick (I’m not familiar with him), acknowledges that younger people, who trend toward Sanders, may have been underrepresented.
Also, according to the Los Angeles Times, about 65,000 unaffiliated voters have changed to Democrat since the beginning of the year and probably are younger people, more likely to support Sanders.
If this poll is any accurate indication, Ms. Clinton should win Oregon. But I would bet on it being a lot closer than 15%….and she could lose.
