Ken Berwitz
A very short blog for you.
If Jeb Bush drops out of the presidential race – and it is starting to look more and more like that is a possibility – who gains?
In my opinion, the two hopefuls who might gain the most are Marco Rubio, who already is among the “leaders” (if anyone can be called a leader at this stage of the game) and John Kasich, whose campaign might resurrect if enough Bush people move his way (more on him later).
Trump does not gain, because, I think, most Bush supporters see him as an unknowledgeable, thin-skinned, big-mouthed joke.
Cruz does not gain because he is too hard-right a candidate to attract Bush supporters.
Neither Carson nor Fiorino gain, because Bush supporters likely see them as inexperienced, unqualified parvenus.
The only other candidate I can see getting something out of a Bush drop-out might be New Jersey Governor Chris Christie. But I don\’t think many people are taking his candidacy very seriously.
And everyone else is too far down in the ratings to matter.
Kasich is the wild card here. His numbers are currently low, but his story – a very successful congressperson and very successful governor, who has at least some likelihood of appealing to what moderate Democrats there still are – is a compelling one.
Stay tuned.
