Ken Berwitz
Did you see the latest ABC News/Washington Post poll?
The numbers are so bad for Hillary Clinton that, although I have to assume they were checked and double-checked, I am having trouble believing them.
First a little history:
-In March, the ABC News/Washington Post poll showed Clinton hugely ahead, with 66% of Democrats and Democrat-leading independents, 12% for Joe Biden, who then (and now) had not declared his candidacy and 5% for the then virtually-unknown Bernie Sanders.-In May, the numbers were 62% for Clinton, 14% for Biden and 10% for Sanders. Directionally less overwhelming compared to March, but still a commanding lead and then some.-In July, Clinton was at 63% to 14% for Biden and 10% for Sanders. That was great news for Ms. Clinton, since it suggested that neither of her competitors were making any headway at all.
But that was before the latest – September – data were released.
In September, Hillary Clinton is at 42%, Bernie Sanders at 24% and Joe Biden at 21%,
Holy excrement.
If those data are correct, in a matter of two months Hillary Clinton has lost a full third of her support, while Bernie Sanders has more than doubled, and Joe Biden – who, let\’s again remember, is not even a declared candidate – is up 50%,
That is nothing short of a meltdown.
And as bad as it looks, it is even worse. The lion\’s share (or maybe I should say the lioness\’s share) of Ms. Clinton\’s loss is among women – the group she is going after much more intensely than men, specifically on the basis of gender appeal.
In July, 52% of men supported Clinton. Now it is down to 43%. If no other demographic had changed at all, that drop – about 17% in just two months – would be a major problem.
But. incredible though it may seem, Ms. Clinton\’s performance among men is the good news.
Among women, Clinton, astonishingly, has gone from 71% in July to 42% now.
In two months, among the group she works hardest to generate empathy from; the group which is expected to overwhelmingly vote for her because they are the same gender, she has dropped 41%.
That is not holy excrement. That is flat-out holy shit.
Let me remind you that this is a political poll, political polls can, and do, generate quirky results, and this could very well reverse in the next wave of interviewing (in fact, that wouldn\’t surprise me a bit if that\’s what happens).
But then again, maybe it isn\’t a quirk. If, for example, the next several polls show a similarly precipitous drop, I would have to think it really happened.
Either way, if I were in Clinton\’s camp, I would be having roughly the kind of anxiety attack a cockroach has when it sees an itchy trigger finger on a can of Raid.
