Ken Berwitz
Yesterday I blogged about the ABC News/Washington Post poll, which showed Hillary Clinton sinking like a rock.
Today we have the CBS/New York Times poll…which shows Hillary Clinton sinking like a rock.
I can show you how by posting just two charts which accompany the CBS News article on Ms. Clinton\’s fortunes.
First, we have overall preferences among Democrat primary voters:
As you can see, Ms. Clinton is down from 58% to 47%. That is a 19% drop…in just one month (ABC/WaPo\’s poll showed a one-third drop, but it was over a two month period, not one).
And to make matters even worse, Clinton has gone from 58% to 28% versus the combination of Bernie Sanders and Joe Biden in August, to 47% – 42% in September. From more than double, to statistical parity in one month flat.
Now let\’s look at the data broken by key demographics:
A quick analysis:
-Clinton drops from 61% support among women to 54%. That\’s down 11% – a fraction of the 41% drop seen in the ABC/WaPo poll, but still a serious problem.-Among men, however, Clinton drops from 53% to 39%. That\’s 26% lower in just one month – much more than the 17% drop in ABC/WaPo.-Forget liberals, they\’re going to vote Democrat regardless of who the candidate is.-But among moderates, who might be swing voters, Hillary is down from 61% a month ago to 49% – a whopping 20%-And in the key 18 – 49 year old demographic, she goes from 59% to 39% – a mind-blowing 34% fall-off. Again, we are talking about a single month.
Assuming the data we just looked at are accurate, and taking into account the ABC/WaPo poll which, though different in several demographics, shows the same precipitous kind of drop-off, it isn\’t hard to figure out that this campaign is in desperate trouble.
But who is getting the votes Hillary is losing?
The answer? Mostly Bernie Sanders – which is perfectly logical given that a) he started from nowhere and b) Joe Biden has, at least formally, not yet entered the race.
However, if Joe Biden jumps in, that could change in a hurry.
Until now, Biden may have been “biden” his time because Ms. Clinton is such a weak candidate that she was tanking and he was rising even without his campaign in progress.
But now, surprisingly – make that amazingly – he may have to jump in sooner rather than later so that he can compete not with Clinton but with Sanders.
Hillary Clinton inevitable?
I used to say no, believe me, she\’s evitable. However, the latest poll data make me think that, maybe, the answer is yes – : not because she is an inevitable winner but because she may be an inevitable loser.
One other thing: this should be a major wake-up call for anyone who thinks that Donald Trump\’s current lead in the Republican polls is any more solid or has any more potential longevity than Hillary Clinton. Especially as Ben Carson, another “candidate” I can\’t at all see winning, now is rapidly gaining on him.
