Unless there is a major shift in voter sentiment, Joe Biden is going to lose Iowa. And, if the polls are reasonably accurate (a very big “if”), it’s going to be by plenty.
Can his already-faltering campaign absorb such a loss, and the boost it will give others competing against him for the Democrat presidential nomination?
That’s the key question – one that Mr. Biden may be very unhappy with the answer to.
From Tristan Justice’s article at thefederalist.com:
Former Vice President Joe Biden’s presidential campaign began playing down expectations in Iowa Monday as the Democratic frontrunner continues to slide in the first-in-the-nation caucus polls.
“I think we’re the only ones who don’t have to win Iowa, honestly, because out strength is the fact that we have a broad and diverse coalition,” Biden campaign manager Greg Schultz told the Wall Street Journal in an interview published Monday.
The Biden campaign is hedging its bets on strong first place finishes in South Carolina and Nevada, where Biden carries a commanding lead in the two states that follow the first-in-the-nation caucuses in Iowa and the first primary in New Hampshire.
Wasn’t it Rudy Giuliani, in 2008, discounting Iowa and New Hampshire, and saying he would win by doing well in subsequent states?
How did that work out?
Yes, Joe Biden still leads in most national polls. But Iowa, and New Hampshire (where he is also losing) are individual states. And losses in one or both of them are highly likely to affect voters’ view of Biden – especially his electablility – in the states that come afterward.
Personally, I see Joe Biden as the frontrunner only by default – i.e. that there is no candidate who can position him/herself as a mainstream moderate running against him, so he gets the lion’s share of that segment’s votes. If another well-known candidate who can position him/herself that way enters the race, my guess is that Biden drops like a rock.
We’ll keep an eye out to see how this progresses.
(NOTE: Hey, maybe Hunter Biden can jump in. With all the money he’s made off daddy Joe, he might even be able to self-fund. And the fact that he has no qualifications for public office? Lack of Qualifications has never stopped him before, has it?)
