Let me start by repeating what I said on June 16th, just after Donald Trump announced he was seeking the Republican nomination for President:
Donald Trump is not running for the presidency. He is generating publicity, because he apparently cannot live without it.
Republicans are stuck with this egomaniac, and they\’ll deal with him as best they can until he, or his PR people, decide it\’s time to make a phony excuse and bug out.
Knowing what I do now, if I could go back in time and rewrite that blog entry, I would add something like “but you can bet that media will run, not walk, to cover his every pronouncement, so expect to hear a lot about his positions as he states them”. Obviously, that would be a reference to Mr. Trump\’s comments about illegal aliens streaming into the country from, and through, Mexico.
But what about the seriousness of his candidacy? Has all the media attention caused people to believe he is in this for real?
Well, here is the latest Gallup data:
If these data are correct, it means that even after this month of non-stop publicity – media love this guy, don\’t they, and he loves the fact that they love him right back – the answer is no. The public view of Trump remains virtually unchanged.
One other thing – and this is decades of marketing research experience talking: The fact that Trump has risen to the top of political polls does not mean he is a preferred candidate.
In my opinion, Trump is on top because, a) when there are many different candidates to choose from, the best-known and most publicized is going to get the most play and b) his hard line on illegals resonates with many voters – including, I am sure, a good number of Democrats as well as Republicans – so they show it by supporting him in polls, as opposed to actually thinking of him as Presidential material if the poll were asking about just a few serious alternatives.
My guess is that Trump, right now, is at or near the highest he will ever be. As the field culls down it will be others who gain the voters and the momentum, not him.
We\’ll see….
