Over the years, millions of illegal aliens have entered the USA from Mexico. And now, due in no small part to President Obama\’s tacit “approval”, a huge new wave of illegal Mexicans, along with Guatemalans and Hondurans, are streaming over our borders.
At first blush this should be a major political benefit for the Democrat Party which, correctly, is seen as dramatically more willing to accept illegals than the Republican Party.
But will the love affair between illegal Latinos and Democrat last? Don\’t be so sure.
Right now, illegals who want to stay in this country have no better friends than Democrats. They predominate as the ones pushing for, and facilitating, their amnesty (and, probably in very short time, their becoming US citizens with full rights, including voting rights).
For this reason, I have no doubt that, if illegals could vote today, the vast majority of them would show their appreciation to the Democrat Party.
But what happens after they achieve legal status? How many will continue to do so? And how many, though grateful to Democrats for attaining legal citizenship, will feel that, since the issue no longer exists, their key concern as voters will be which party best reflects their values?
In this regard, Latino voters – who are primarily Catholic and tend to have conservative social values – will be no lock for the Democrat Party. No lock at all.
Put another way, is it reasonable to expect that the party which is more committed to traditional family values, more committed to the importance of religion, more committed to one man/one woman marriages and more committed to a pro-life rather than a pro-choice position on abortion will do pretty well among these new voters? The answer seems self-evident.
Politics is a funny business. Circumstances can change things in a big hurry.
Illustratively, consider Black votes.
As you may be aware, from reconstruction right up to the 1960\’s, most Black people were Republicans. Jackie Robinson was a Republican. So was James Meredith. And Frederick Douglass. And Booker T. Washington. And many, many others.
Then, in the 1960\’s, a combination of integrationist “Freedom” Democrat parties breaking away from segregationist Democrats who had dominated politics in the south, and the Republican “southern strategy” which – with considerable success – brought in a large number of White southern voters who opposed the new Democrats, changed things virtually overnight. Since that time, The overwhelming majority of Black people have voted Democrat.
Don\’t doubt for a second that the political U-turn taken by Black citizens in the 1960\’s cannot be replicated, in the opposite direction, by newly legalized Latino citizens.
If I were a Republican, I would see this bloc as a short-term problem but a major long-term opportunity. And if I were a Democrat, I would take what I could get short-term, and have nightmares about what happens afterwards.