Ken Berwitz
How could a chief political correspondent, and host of animportant Sunday morning show, get things so wrong?
On this morning\’s Today Show, a new NBC/Wall St. Journalpoll was released, which showed that preference for Hillary Clinton amongDemocrat voters had fallen to 42%, while Bernie Sanders – whom, just monthsago, relatively few even heard of, let alone would vote for, hadrisen to 35%.
How bad is that? Well, in the June wave of this same poll, Hillary Clinton was leading Sanders75% to 15%, and in July, she was leading him 59% to 25%.
That\’s no typo either. In just three months\’ time, the NBC/Wall St.Journal poll is telling us Hillary Clinton has gone from a 60% lead over BernieSanders to a 7% lead. The “inevitable”, “odds-on” candidate literally fell to pieces.
Just about any astute observer – even most not-so-astute observers – would conclude those numbers are disastrous, wouldn\’t they?
Well, not NBC\’s Political Director and Meet ThePress host, Chuck Todd.
With full knowledge of these these data (in fact, the linkto poll results I\’ve posted above comes from the “Meet The Press” web site)here is what Todd had to say about them:
“I think he\’s a real threat to herin Iowa and New Hampshire. I mean I don\’tknow where he goes after that, but he is a serious threat in both of thoseplaces. They are unique for his message,and his progressive message. But becausewhen you look at her numbers in these places, she\’s popular enough, it\’s justthat they seem to love Bernie, they seem to like Hillary. So, look, I don\’t think he\’s a threat to stopher for the nomination, but now you see why I think they\’re so worried aboutBiden getting in. “
Uh…let\’s think about this.
The first thing to do is remind Chuck Todd of that greatFrank Sinatra classic, “Love And Marriage”, and its most memorable line, “Youcan\’t have one without the other.”
Chuck, you\’ve talked about how Bernie Sanders is a treat toHillary Clinton in Iowa and New Hampshire, but seem to think his run ends rightthere. Please allow me to remind youthat the data you are referencing are not from a poll conducted in Iowa and NewHampshire, they are from a nationalpoll, conducted exclusively amongDemocrats.
If Hillary Clinton has dropped that far, that fast,nationally – again, not just in Iowa and New Hampshire but nationally – and you can\’t figureout that the guy who has jumped up 25% as she\’s dropped 32% is a seriouschallenge to her, then you are in the wrong business.
Now let\’s think about that “she\’s popular enough” line.
Hillary Clinton is, arguably, the single mostknown commodity in the Democrat Party. Just about everyone, regardless of party, knows who she is, who she is married to and what she has donefor the past quarter century. If, withthat momentum at her back, she can lose almosthalf her support in three months – among Democrats – to an obscure 74* year old Jewish Democrat from a tinystate, she is not “popular enough”. Infact, is hard to argue that, beyond her drop-dead-support base, she is anywhereclose.
Should Hillary and her people be worried about Joe Biden? Finally we have an area of agreement. You can bet your backside they should be. Because Biden – though he\’s got plenty ofbaggage as well – is far more experienced, far more likable, and dramaticallybetter on the stump than Hillary Clinton will be the best day of her life.
Biden has the capacity to capture Clinton\’s voters…and agood number of Sanders\’ voters as well, which, based on the past three NBC/WSJpolls, can hardly be said of Clinton.
Hillary Clinton is in dire trouble. If no one jumps in to fill the void, she\’ll probablyget past Bernie Sanders and win the nomination, but if someone – particularly JoeBiden – jumps in, she will be damn near on life support.
It takes no more than a decent political analyst to see this,Chuck. How could you not?
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*Originally I blogged that Bernie Sanders is 73 years old. He became 74 on September 8th.
