CATALONIA

I have not blogged about the crisis in Spain until now.  But the fact that its Northeast province, Catalonia may declare itself an independent, sovereign state could easily start a civil war there, so let me go over a few details.

Though, geographically, Catalonia (in red below) is less than 7% of Spain’s total land area….

…it comprises about one-fifth of Spain’s entire population – including Barcelona, the country’s second largest city.

It also accounts for almost one quarter of Spain’s entire gross domestic product and one third of its international exports.

Does anyone seriously expect Spain to benignly wave bye-bye if Catalonia declares it has seceded?

Not only would this quite likely lead to war and bloodshed, but it would also materially, maybe fatally, damage the European Union, which would have to decide how to handle the situation.  Is the EU going to ignore Catalonia?  Declare it a new state?  Which EU countries will and will not agree to whatever decision is made, and what will they do about it?

And what about the people?  Does everyone in Catalonia want to separate from Spain?  How many families would be split in and out of the province, like South and North Korea?  Ditto for businesses with offices in and out of it.

This is not a small crisis or even a big one.  This is a huge crisis in which the two sides are heading on a collision course with each other.

Let’s watch this one very closely as it unfolds.  The unfolding won’t take long, and its consequences are going to be enormous.