What do you do when you have a candidate that’s almost assured of being voted in as your nominee, and almost assured of losing the election?
If you’re a Republican you better start thinking about that.
From Alex Griffing’s article for (leftward, Trump-hating) mediaite.com:
A new Associated Press-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research poll out Wednesday found that former President Donald Trump is increasing his grip on the Republican Party but still distancing a majority of the American electorate.
The poll found that 63% of Republican voters “now say they want the former president to run again,” noted an AP summary. The strong support from inside the GOP marked an increase from the same poll last April, which showed 55% of Republican voters wanted to see Trump on the party’s ticket again.
“Seven in 10 Republicans now have a favorable opinion of Trump, an uptick from the 60% who said so two months ago,” added the AP of Trump’s increasing popularity in the GOP as more indictments have been filed against him.
While Trump’s grip on the Republican Party is undisputable in the poll’s findings, his relationship with the general electorate is far less favorable.
“But in a crucial warning sign for the former president and his supporters, Trump faces glaring vulnerabilities heading into a general election, with many Americans strongly dug in against him,” wrote the AP’s Jill Colvin and Linley Sanders.
The poll found that in a general election, 74% of Republicans said they would support Trump in 2024. However, 53% of Americans said they “definitely” would not support him and another 11% said they “probably” would not support him.
Donald Trump has a solid, seemingly unmovable base of Republican support, which hovers around 35 – 40% (the remainder, I suspect, are a combination of people who like him but can be switched, and people who aren’t that hot on Trump but are reacting to the third-world legal treatment he is being afforded by Democrats in New York, DC, Georgia and Florida).
With over a dozen competitors splitting the rest, that makes him the prohibitive favorite to win his party’s nomination…
…which, I strongly suspect, is exactly what Democrats are hoping for.
Why? Because, between the fact that he is disliked/despised by so many other people, and the fact that he will have to deal with four different sets of indictments throughout the primary and election campaign, there is no realistic way he can effectively compete against the eventual Democrat challenger (almost certainly NOT Joe Biden). In all likelihood he will spend the next X number of years appealing convictions on the ridiculous charges that have been brought against him.
Ironically, however, those same Democrats who are, no doubt, loving the damage they are inflicting on Trump (and on the country as well, which doesn’t seem to bother them a bit), may eventually find themselves with a severe case of “be careful what you wish for, you just might get it”.
See, if Trump is not the nominee, the immense amount of baggage he carries goes away as well. And there are several viable alternatives to Trump among Republicans who would be major problems for them in 2024. Alternatives like Nikki Haley, Tim Scott and Vivek Ramaswami, to name three.
Suppose Trump goes bye-bye and, say, Nikki Haley – a successful governor and former UN Ambassador, not to mention a woman and a minority – is the Republican choice. Do you have any doubt she would do well in a national election? I sure don’t. Ditto for a number of the others; and not just the three I’ve specified.
That could mean the Democrats currently rejoicing over their hit job on Trump, might be spending next year looking back longingly at the lost opportunity to run against him.
Stay tuned, folks. This circus is far, far from over. And don’t bet on anything, because it can change on a dime at any time.
