Yesterday I wrote about Donald Trump’s presidential run. I surmised that he could win the nomination but would almost certainly lose the election – but not to Joe Biden, because there’s no way Democrats are running him again.
Here is the meat of John Hinderaker’s just-published commentary on Trump’s prospects. Take a look and see how similar his analysis is to mine:
If Trump is the GOP nominee, he will be crushed in the general election, and he will bring the House of Representatives down with him. The latest AP poll finds Trump with 35% approval and 62% disapproval. Sixty-four percent say they definitely, or probably, won’t vote for Trump in 2024. If he is the Republican nominee, he will lose worse than he did in 2020.
The Democrats don’t have a candidate–it won’t be Joe Biden, but Gavin Newsom isn’t a great deal better–and if the Republicans nominate someone other than Trump, he or she is pretty certain to win. So Democrats are banking on Trump as their lifeline, their only path to victory. So far, their strategy is looking pretty good: indict Trump, make him a martyr, cause Republicans to rally round him, to forget the past, and to overlook the fact that Trump is an egomaniac with no loyalty to the Republican Party or, really, the United States of America.
In my opinion, Trump should neither be elected President of the United States nor go to prison. That doesn’t seem like a stretch: it describes approximately 310 million Americans, including you and me. But in today’s bizarre political climate, the idea that Trump should neither be elected nor prosecuted is apparently a niche perspective. I can’t explain it.
What I do know is that the Democrats are not moral, but they are smart. They are playing an exceptionally weak hand: Joe Biden is senile, obviously incapable of a second term. He won’t be the nominee. His vice president, Kamala Harris, is an inept politician who couldn’t win the general election against anyone except Donald Trump. She can’t get the nomination against serious competition. There is no heir apparent. Gavin Newsom, the most likely choice, has successively presided over the disasters of San Francisco and the State of California. If you are a Democrat, that is a grim picture.
But the Democrats have an ace in the hole: Donald Trump. If they can induce Republicans to nominate Trump, they can snatch victory from the jaws of defeat, regardless of who their nominee might be. If the election is a referendum on Trump–as it would be, if he is the nominee–they can’t lose.
It used to be said that God protects fools, drunkards and the United States of America. That has proved true through our history to date. But if Republicans are dumb enough to nominate Trump for the third time, all bets are off. Providence has only so many reprieves to offer.
There you have it. The only thing missing is my speculation that, by indicting Trump in four different Democrat-dominated venues (so far), they may force him out – and lose the hand they’re playing. But, based on his analysis, I strongly suspect if you asked Mr. Hinderaker about that he’d say the same thing.
I’d finish by repeating the old adage that great minds think alike. But, then again, idiots do too. So I’ll just leave it at that we have the same basic thoughts.
Do you need me to tell you I think Hinderaker makes good points?
