Would you like to read an excellent analysis of what is going on at the Strait of Hormuz and what the future possibilities are?
If so, I’ve got an excellent analysis for you. Struan Stevenson’s, at pjmedia.com.
Here is how it starts:
The gathering storm over the Strait of Hormuz carries with it unmistakable historical resonance. When the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) begins to threaten tariffs, or more bluntly, coercive tolls, on oil tankers navigating one of the world’s most vital maritime arteries, it evokes troubling parallels with the 1956 Suez Crisis. Then, as now, a strategic chokepoint became the focal point of geopolitical brinkmanship, miscalculation, and the dangerous illusion of control. Yet history rarely repeats itself neatly. Today’s Iran is not Nasser’s Egypt. It is a regime battered from within and without, its leadership decapitated, its command structures degraded, and its ideological authority increasingly hollow. And still, like a wounded animal, it lashes out.
The IRGC’s threats over Hormuz are less a demonstration of strength than a signal of desperation. For decades, the regime has relied on asymmetric leverage, mines, fast attack craft and proxy militias to offset its conventional military weaknesses. Now, with much of its senior leadership reportedly eliminated and its domestic security wings, the Basij, in particular, under sustained pressure, Tehran is reverting to its most familiar playbook, disrupting global oil flows, raising the economic cost of confrontation, and hoping that international resolve fractures under the strain.
But this time, the context is radically different. The Islamic Republic is no longer facing a distant adversary reluctant to engage. It is confronting a convergence of forces encompassing external military pressure, internal dissent, and the growing organization of its most determined opposition. Reports that Mujahedin-e Khalq (MEK) Resistance Units are coalescing into what is being described as an “Army of Liberation” will send tremors through what remains of the regime’s command hierarchy. For years, Tehran has dismissed such groups as marginal or irrelevant. That narrative is now becoming increasingly difficult to sustain. An organized, armed domestic resistance, particularly one capable of coordinating with external actors, changes the strategic equation entirely. It transforms the conflict from a conventional interstate confrontation into something far more existential for the regime, a multi-front struggle for survival.
Intelligent, logical and thought-provoking, wouldn’t you say?
Do yourself a favor and read the rest as well. You won’t regret it.
