TODAY: WHERE IS THE HILLARY SEGMENT?

Ken Berwitz


Maybe it\’s me….but I just scoured the Today Show\’s web site to find Chuck Todd\’s analysis of what Nevada\’s primary means to Hillary Clinton – a very poor analysis, in my opinion – and cannot find it.  I can find his analysis of the Republican race in South Carolina without a problem, though.

As I remember it, Mr. Todd assured us that if Hillary Clinton wins Nevada, even by a little, she would breathe “a sigh of relief”, and if she lost it would make Ms. Clinton and her people “nervous”.

Not to me.  

If Bernie Sanders is competitive in Nevada – even if he loses – Hillary Clinton will not be relieved, she will be near-panicked, because he will have done so in a state with a large minority population (something her campaign biggie, Robbie Mook, lied about this week).  If Sanders were to win, it would – and should – put Ms. Clinton in full panic mode altogether.

If you want to read a very good assessment of the Nevada Democrat primary, try David Weigel and John Wagner\’s piece at the Washington Post..  Here\’s a taste for you:

Until quite recently, Clinton’s campaign saw Nevada as achance for a face-saving victory after an anticipated defeat in New Hampshire.But that defeat turned out to be a trouncing. Now, the Sanders campaign istrying to prove that she can be beaten anywhere. ­Nevada, where the senatorfrom Vermont is facing off against Clinton\’s allies among organized laborleaders and a ­Latino-heavy electorate, has become the first test.

Clinton\’shopes rested on her overwhelming advantage among voters of color – part of a “firewall” her aides have claimed in many states that follow overwhelminglywhite Iowa and New Hampshire on the electoral calendar. Sanders, however, isbetting that his appeal among young and working-class voters, revealed sodramatically in New Hampshire, is strong enough to transcend race.

Nevada is a chance to disprove “this firewall fantasy thatthe Clinton campaign has put out there,” said Jeff Weaver, Sanders\’s campaignmanager. “If we do well, it destroys that myth.”

Sanders\’s aides say there isstrong evidence in their internal polling that young and working-class Latinosare coming his way. Even the Clinton campaign is now playing down expectations.

That\’s a good analysis.  And there is plenty more good stuff in the rest of the article.  Well worth reading.

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