Yes, it is way too early to make anything of polls involving Donald Trump and Kamala Harris. And, yes, presidential polling should be synonym for skepticism, since polling is so iffy and so often wrong.
But since the Google and Bing search engines are so filled with the great news (apparently to them) that one poll – a Reuters-Ipsos poll – shows Harris leading Trump by 2% in a heads-up race and 4% if RFK Jr. is added in, I thought I’d put up a quick reality check.
Here, from Alia Shoaib’s article for Newsweek – which certainly is no fan of Donald Trump’s – is the real polling news:
If officially chosen as the Democratic presidential nominee, Vice President Kamala Harris will face a steep challenge to defeat Donald Trump in key battleground states, polls show.
Several polls taken before Biden dropped out show Harris losing to Trump in almost every matchup in eight key swing states. Biden was also largely trailing Trump in polls in these states.
(Arizona) In Arizona, Harris loses to Trump in every recent poll.
(Florida) Only one poll this year has examined a Harris vs. Trump matchup in Florida. According to the InsiderAdvantage poll conducted on July 15-16 among 800 likely voters, Trump leads with 49 percent to Harris’s 39 percent.
(Georgia) In the 11 polls taken of Georgia voters so far this year, Harris loses to Trump every time.
(Michigan) Recent polls of Michigan voters show Trump beating Harris or pulling even.
(Nevada) The most recent poll, taken by InsiderAdvantage between July 15-16 of 800 likely voters, found Trump ahead of Harris 50 percent to 40 percent.
(North Carolina) The most recent poll surveying a Harris-Trump matchup was taken between May 8-12 by Morning Consult of 704 registered voters. It shows Trump leading Harris 50 percent to 40 percent.
(Pennsylvania) Several polls taken in July show Trump beating Harris in Pennsylvania every time.
(Wisconsin) Recent polls show Harris either even with Trump, or just behind him in Wisconsin.
These are the polls that actually matter – the ones in states that are in play and will presumably determine the winner of this election.
And let’s remember that every one was taken before even one day of the Trump people campaigning against Harris. Before they remind voters that the one and only responsibility Harris has had in 3 1/2 years was the border, asking how they felt things were going there….and then tying her to Biden’s record on inflation, etc.
Democrats finally pushed the cognitively-impaired Joe Biden out a plane window (after spending years pretending he was just fine, let’s not forget). Harris is who they kept in the plane.
But as I watch the Democrat Party quickly anoint Kamala Harris at its nominee – weeks before an almost assuredly rancorous convention where her nomination may well be challenged – I can’t help thinking of that old adage “be careful what you wish for, you just might get it”.
Assuming Harris actually winds up being the nominee, will she crash on election day? Or will she suddenly discover some great capability to campaign – one that she didn’t even begin to have when she tried to run in 2020 (and had to give it up because she didn’t even win one delegate)?
We won’t know until November. But I think I know what the odds are.
