Democrats
Hillary Clinton had an excellent night. Not quite as great as it might seem on the surface, but close.
She predominated in Florida and North Carolina – both very important and both very much expected.
She won by about 14% in Ohio – better than what the last polls showed.
But she won Illinois by less than 2%, and she won Missouri by only 2 tenths of 1%.
Bernie Sanders is staying in the race, at least as of this moment. He can argue that he had success in Illinois and Missouri because they were projected as solid Hillary wins but turned into virtual ties, and he’ll be correct on paper. In real terms, however, barring issues unrelated to the primaries (health, indictment) this race is over.
Republicans
Donald Trump won four of the five states – Kasich beat him handily in his home state of Ohio – by doing exactly what he has done in the past: getting far less than 50% of the vote, but winning because other candidates split the rest.
Trump has a large base of Trump-and-no-one-but-Trump supporters, but very limited success with the rest. If he were acceptable to the general run of Republican voters, his percent of the vote would have gone up significantly as the field winnowed down from 17 to four (and now three, because Rubio has ended his candidacy). But it did not.
John Kasich got what he needed to stay in the race; a convincing win in Ohio. But, barring the unforseen, the only way he can possibly win is if Trump cannot amass a majority of first ballot votes, and his delegates are then released. That is a possible, path for him, but I wouldn’t bet any money on it.
Ted Cruz won nothing last night. Not good. But he remains a solid #2 in number of delegates. As with Kasich, his only hope is if Trump’s delegates are released…but, if that happens, will they go to him or the much better liked, much more politically successful, Kasich? That remains to be seen.
