WHY DID CAIT CONLEY DUMP KATHY HOCHUL

What do you do if you’re a Democrat, running in a competitive congressional race, and you think the Democrat Governor of your state might be a problem in the district you are running in?

Well, here’s one thing you might do, via Carl Campanile and Vaughn Golden’s article for the New York Post:

The Democratic candidate running against Republican Rep. Mike Lawler shockingly threw Gov. Kathy Hochul under the bus — telling a crowd she agreed with her opponent that the governor “has got to go.”

Cait Conley delivered the jaw-dropping burn this week, becoming the second Democratic congressional candidate to publicly distance themselves from Hochul ahead of next month’s midterms.

The stunning moment came after Lawler, the incumbent congressman repping New York’s 17th House District, railed against New York’s business climate — citing the highest in the nation taxes, congestion pricing and red rape — during a Putnam County VFW forum Tuesday night.

“We need a new governor. Kathy Hochul has to go,” he said in closing, as the conservative-leaning crowd cheered him on, video obtained by The Post. shows.

“I have to tell you: I’m in absolute agreement with my opponent,” Conley, who was sitting next to Lawler at the dais, surprisingly said immediately after as she stood to address the group.

Now that’s something you don’t come across every day.  A candidate dumping her own party’s sitting Governor – who, by the way, is leading in the polls.  

There’s a lot you can speculate about this.

-Did she speak up this way out of honest conviction – that she is truly unhappy with Kathy Hochul’s gubernatorial performance and has the integrity to say so?  Well, maybe.  But, if so, how come she voiced no negative commentary about Hochul until now?  That seems a little – maybe a lot – suspect.

-Is it because she thinks Hochul is so disliked that publicly taking her down this way would be beneficial vote-wise?  That seems much more likely.  But it also seems counterproductive given that, according to the polls, Hochul is leading her opponent, Bruce Blakeman.

-Is it because she thinks, statewide polls notwithstanding, this particular district would give her more votes as the result of doing so?  That’s also a hard one to believe, given that her comments are sure to turn off a good many of her own party’s voters, with minimal benefit from Republican voters (who already have one of their own to vote for).

-Isit because, publicly visible polls notwithstanding, Conley has seen internal data which tell a very different story, causing her to believe Hochul is going to be a loser and dumping her this way would be a net positive?  I have no information to support this possibility.  But given that, to me, it is the explanation that makes the most sense, I am not ruling it out.

Regardless of what the reason is, this is a pretty stunning turn of events.

Let’s wait a day or two to see/hear initial political/voter reaction…and then see how things turn out in November.

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