Today\’s New York Times has an article about how desperately Democrats need Black turnout to avoid losing their senate majority.
Written by Sheryl Gay Stolberg, and titled “Black Vote Seen as Last Hope for Democrats to Hold Senate”, it starts this way:
Theconfidential memo from a former pollster for PresidentObama contained a blunt warning for Democrats. Written this monthwith an eye toward Election Day, it predicted “crushing Democraticlosses across the country” if the party did not do more to getblack voters to the polls.
“African-Americansurge voters came out in force in 2008 and 2012, but they are notwell positioned to do so again in 2014,” Cornell Belcher, thepollster, wrote in the memo, dated Oct. 1. “In fact, over halfaren\’t even sure when the midterm elections are taking place.”
Mr.Belcher\’s assessment points to an urgent imperative for Democrats:To keep Republicans from taking control of the Senate, as many arepredicting, they need black voters in at least four key states. Yetthe one politician guaranteed to generate enthusiasm among AfricanAmericans is the same man many Democratic candidates wantto avoid: Mr. Obama.
Mr. Belcher\’s analysis is crystal-clear….and 100% correct. Black voters overwhelmingly (we\’re talking over 90% here) vote Democrat. So to bring out the Black vote is to bring out the Democrat vote.
The importance of doing so in states with large Black populations – like Louisiana (32% Black), North Carolina (21%) and Arkansas (16%) cannot be overemphasized.
So what should Republicans be doing about it?
I\’m neither a Republican nor am I a political strategist. But, it seems to me, the fact that Democrat candidates are running from President Obama at about 100MPH presents a golden opportunity for them.
If I were sitting at a Republican strategy session, I would suggest that, to counteract Democrat advertising targeted toward Black voters in those states, the Republican candidate should run advertising which says something like this:
“(Name of Senate Candidate) is asking for your vote on election day. But, at the same time, he/she refuses to run on the policies of President Obama and his administration. (WHERE APPLICABLE) He/she won\’t even admit to voting for President Obama. (Name of candidate) thinks he/she can disrespect Barack Obama for the entire election, but that you\’ll come running to vote for him/her anyway. Simply stated, (Name of candidate) thinks he/she owns your vote, no matter what. Are you ok with that? It\’s something you should be thinking about long and hard before making your decision.”
A message like this would – in respectful, candid terms – encourage Black voters to think about how the candidate – the Democrat candidate – is, in effect, running against Mr. Obama, but assuming that Black voters will come out for him/her anyway on election day .
Would it counteract Democrats\’ efforts to increase Black turnout, based on the theory that no matter what a Democrat candidate does or says Black people will vote for that candidate?
I think it would have a pretty considerable effect.
How about you?
