FINALLY: A POLL THAT ASKS DEMOCRATS IF THEY WILL VOTE FOR TRUMP

Ken Berwitz


Why is it that – again, asalways seems to be the case – a study is conducted asking about Trump\’spopularity among Republicans (who can then be classified as mouth-breathingneanderthals for supporting someone like him), but Democrats are not askedwhether they would give trump their vote?  What ispolitico.com afraid of?  Do the people there avoid asking out of fear overwhat they might find out?  Or, is it that they did ask the question anddid generate the information, but don\’t want to tell us what it is?


That little snippet you just read came from my blog of four days ago, which discussed a new poll from politico.com.  I doubt you need me to explain my problem with it.  Its title was “The Questions They Won\’t Ask Of Democrats”.

Well, guess what?  Someone finally did.

Excerpted from James Warren\’s article for U.S. News & World Report:

A new survey of likely voters might at least raise momentarydyspepsia for Democrats…

…The survey by Washington-based Mercury Analytics is acombination online questionnaire and “dial-test” of Trump\’s first bigcampaign ad among 916 self-proclaimed “likely voters” (this video shows the ad and the dial test results). Ittook place primarily Wednesday and Thursday and has a margin of error of plusor minus 3.5 percent.

Nearly 20 percent of likely Democratic voters say they\’dcross sides and vote for Trump, while a small number, or 14 percent, ofRepublicans claim they\’d vote for Clinton. When those groups were furtherbroken down, a far higher percentage of the crossover Democrats contend theyare “100 percent sure” of switching than the Republicans.

So what do we find here?  

We find that, if these data are correct, in a race between Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton, Trump would get more crossover votes from Democrats than Clinton would from Republicans.

I can\’t prove it, but I would bet that this was not true even a month ago.  The reason, I\’m guessing, is, in part, simple longevity:  i.e. the simple fact that Trump has stayed in the race this long makes him more credible…while Clinton is still where she was:  a flawed, unaccomplished candidate whose main asset is that she is so well protected by mainstream media.  

Add in the terrorist attacks – which obviously work to the benefit of a candidate committing to the strongest actions to protect us (regardless of whether you approve or disapprove of his methods, that would be Trump) – and you probably have the reasons this is happening.

Will Trump\’s crossover appeal last?  No one can say for sure.

But wouldn\’t it be nice if subsequent polls gave us an idea one way or the other?

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