I will be adding to this during the evening.
The cable networks are declaring Mitch McConnell the winner in Kentucky. No surprise there: it would have taken a Democrat wave to give his opponent, Alison Lundergran Grimes, the win….
…which brings us to Virginia, where Fox is reporting that, based on exit polls, it is too close to call. I suspect – but am not at all sure – that Democrat incumbent Mark Warner will win by a few points over Republican challenger Ed Gillespie. But the key here is that just a week or two ago, this looked like an eminently safe Democrat seat, with the polls showing Warner ahead by double digits…a couple over 20%. If the actual vote is anywhere near close, it suggests that Republicans may outperform what their poll data are saying….which would be disastrous for Democrats in a half dozen seemingly close races. We\’ll see….
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UPDATE: It\’s about 9:35, and nothing I see changes my expectation that Republicans will take the Senate and therefore be in control of both houses of congress.
A couple of big surprises though:
-It is going to be close in Kansas between Roberts and Orman. I never ever thought that would happen, I assumed Roberts would pull away\’
-It is going to be close in Virginia. I still expect Mark Warner to beat Ed Gillespie, but a) it will be a squeaker, and b) it\’s still very much in doubt.
-With 97% of the votes counted Rick Scott has a 3% lead over Charlie Crist. That is a surprise too; I expected a close race but thought Crist would pull this one out. Now the odds are that he won\’t (though, with a lot of votes left in the Democrat-heavy southern part of the state, there\’s no guarantee yet).
Ok, enough. I\’m going to sleep. We\’ll talk in the morning.
