Let me start with the conclusion. Yes, he can. It is a long shot, but not at all beyond the realm of possibility.
The socialist Israel-hater is 33 year old zohran mamdani. He is a self-avowed socialist who clearly favors “the Palestinians” over Israel. His positions on issues are childishly high in what he thinks of as principles (rent freeze, free buses, free child care, supermarkets run by the government, etc.) but with no logical explanation of how any of this gets paid for. And – no surprise here – he is endorsed by, among others, Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez.
This puts mamdani in a unique slot. On the negative side, his positions would almost certainly not win him a majority of Democrat primary votes. But, on the other side of things, a) no other candidate of any consequence will take votes from him, because none of them are fighting for the same things and b) the other candidates are fighting each other to get the same voting blocs, thus splitting votes among them.
With incumbent Mayor Eric Adams running as an independent, former Governor Andrew Cuomo is the odds-on favorite to become the Democrat nominee. But he was forced out of office based on sexual allegations that he denied, but were strong enough to take him down, and – most importantly to me – he was directly responsible for untold numbers of senior citizens dying during the Covid era (more on that in my next blog).
So if Cuomo’s lead can be eroded enough by his resignation/ the covid horror show, and the others split their votes, mamdani could wind up the Democrat nominee.
That would put him up against current Mayor Eric Adams, and what’s left of Curtis Sliwa, aka the Republicans’ “we know we’re going to lose so lets just let this guy run” candidate.
Sliwa, though no serious challenge to win, will get just about all the Republican votes there are in New York City (think Staten Island), and will pull some from Eric Adams. In a three way race, if Sliwa takes enough from Adams, mamdani – the only socialist/Israel hater and the only hard leftist in a city loaded with hard-leftists – conceivably could win.
To paraphrase Tevya, from Fiddler On The Roof: “Sounds crazy, no? But in our little city of New York….”
