We all know that famous adage, “It’s the economy, stupid”. But is it really true? And, if so, what might it mean to the 2018 midterm elections?
Before answering, please read this excerpt from Chris Kahn’s article at reuters.com – which should scare the life out of Democrats who think they have a huge midterm election victory sewn up:
Enthusiasm for the Democratic Party is waning among young voters – so-called millennials – as its candidates head into the crucial midterm congressional elections, according to the Reuters/Ipsos national opinion poll.
The online survey of more than 16,000 registered voters ages 18 to 34 shows their support for Democrats over Republicans for Congress slipped by about 9 percentage points over the past two years, to 46 percent overall. And they increasingly say the Republican Party is a better steward of the economy.
Although nearly two of three young voters polled said they do not like Republican President Donald Trump, their distaste for him does not necessarily extend to all Republicans or translate directly into votes for Democratic congressional candidates.
What does that tell you? It tells you that, if these data are correct, 18-34’s, who Democrats tend to think of as a natural constituency, may not like Donald Trump, but do like what they perceive he is doing for the economy.
And, among White millennials, the numbers are even more pronounced. According to Mallory Shelbourne’s article at thehill.com:
While 47 percent of white millennials said they would vote for the Democratic candidate in 2016, only 39 percent said they would back the Democrat this year. That number was equaled by those who said they would support the GOP candidate.
Again assuming these data are correct, it means the only edge Democrats have with millennials is among non-White voters.
So what would it mean if at least some Black millennials react positively to, say, Candace Owens, or Kanye West, or Chance the Rapper?
And what about older voters, color notwithstanding, who are just reacting to “the economy, stupid” as it continue to show strength?
Look, I don’t know what’s going to happen on election day this year. No one does.
But anyone who thinks Democrats are going to be all smiles election night better take a closer look at how voting trends may be moving. A much closer look.