The 54 year al-assad rule of Syria – first hafez al-assad (1971-2000) and then his son bashar (2000 – yesterday) – is over. bashar al-assad has fled the country, probably to Russia, leaving the result of his murderous, genocidal war on his own people (over 500,000 dead) behind him.
What we know about the rebels who deposed al-assad is that they seem to hate his two most prolific benefactors, Iran and Russia – neither of whom could do a thing to help him in this overthrow, because they are both immersed in wars of their own.
What we don’t know, however, is plenty.
We don’t know whether the rebel forces can create and sustain any government or whether this is the start of Syria becoming another Libya or Yemen – countries without seriously functioning governments ruled by whoever can kill the most enemies.
We don’t know what this means for Israel. There is little doubt that whichever group takes over will wish Israel did not exist. But whether it intends to make war, or peacefully, if unhappily, co-exist with Israel remains to be seen.
Regardless of how things turns out, howwever, the one thing we do know is that this is another blow to the reputations of Russia and Iran – neither of which could protect their pal al-assad because both are knotted in wars they won’t – can’t – win. Russia is neck deep in a no-win war with The Ukraine, and Iran is umbilically tied to hezbollah and hamas, both of which are being decimated by Israel….with Israel’s Arab allies-of-circumstance (Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, etc.) on its side because, with good reason, they fear Iran as much as Israel does – and are happy to let Israel do the fighting.
Since we don’t know what the actual outcome will be, we don’t know how Syria’s loss of al-assad will play out. But, at the very least, we know that, by ridding itself of this murderous sack of shit, Syria at least starts way ahead of the game.
May it stay there, to its, and Israel’s, benefit.
