….the claim that, based on political polls, this election is running dead even is a Democrat wet dream.

My basis for saying so?  Take a look the aggregate poll data on this day, October 26th, for the 2016 and 2020 elections – both national and for 9 individual states.  Then compare them to what the polls are showing in 2024:

These data provide several key findings:

The first is that Trump is doing significantly better nationally than he did in both 2016 (when he won the presidency) and 2020.

But that is not as important as how he is doing in the so-called “swing states” – i.e. the ones that tend to be close and could go either way.  How does Trump do there?

The answer:  in every swing state shown above (with the exception of Georgia, where Trump is leading, but not by as much as he led in 2016 and 2020), Trump is polling well ahead of where he was in 2016 and 2020.

Now add in the fact that, in both of his previous presidential elections, Trump underperformed in the polling/he did appreciably better than the polling indicated.  What does that tell you?

It tells you that, based on these data, Trump’s prospects are looking extremely strong.

Now the caveats:

-Does this provide some kind of guarantee that Trump will again outdistance the polls and – if he does – run the swing states shown above, thus clinching an election victory?  No it does not.

-Are polls often inaccurate?  Yes they are.

-Can even accurate polls change in the week and a half left in this campaign?  Yes they can.

Every caveat you just read is 100% correct.

But, looking at the above poll results and considering Trump’s polling history, whose side of things would you want to be on?  His or Kamala Harris’s?

Is it worry time for the Kamala Harris campaign…bordering on panic time?

I’d say so.