Earlier today I blogged this question: Why have no political polls – certainly not the ones I\’ve seen – measured Donald Trump\’s popularity among Democrats? What percentage of them agree with his assessment of the Mexican illegals streaming over our border?
And this afternoon, the latest Washington Post-ABC News poll has been released, which gives us a partial answer.
It does not measure reaction to Trump\’s comments about illegals streaming over our border. But it does give us his overall favorability ratings, which can be measured against his overall favorability at the end of May, weeks before he announced his candidacy and made those comments.
Here they are:
Total Sample: Late May: Favorable 16%, Unfavorable 71% – Mid July: Favorable 33%, Unfavorable 61%
Democrats: Late May: Favorable 11%, Unfavorable 78% – Mid July: Favorable 19%, Unfavorable 77%
Republicans: Late May: Favorable 23%, Unfavorable 65% – Mid July: Favorable 57%, Unfavorable 40%
Independents: Late May: Favorable 15%, Unfavorable 72% – Mid July: Favorable 35%, Unfavorable 58%
So what do we see here? We see that:
-Overall, Donald Trump\’s favorability has doubled.
-His favorability has more than doubled for Republicans — but, very importantly, for Independents as well.
-And even among Democrats, the segment which, it stands to reason, would like him least, he has almost doubled, and is now seen favorably by about one in five.
If these data are correct, it would seem to me that Mr. Trump\’s comments about Mexican illegals just might be resonating with a good-sized segment of the population – most importantly among Independents, the folks whose voting is most likely to swing elections.
Does that mean Donald Trump is a viable presidential candidate? Nope.
But does it mean that the issue of Mexican illegals – is meaningful to a great many people and has the potential to work for a Republican candidate who understands how to utilize it? Yep.
That\’s something every candidate on both sides of the aisle better think long and hard about.
