Here are the first two paragraphs of a New York Times article reassessing public sentiment toward the Trump tax legislation, and the chart it put up to show how things have changed from December to January:
Americans are warming to the Republican tax law, and becoming more confident in the economy as a whole. They just aren’t sure that President Trump deserves much credit.
The tax overhaul that Mr. Trump signed into law just before Christmas remains relatively unpopular and highly polarizing, according to a new poll conducted for The New York Times by SurveyMonkey. But support for the law has grown significantly over the past month, and more Americans believe that they will receive a tax cut. Forty-six percent of Americans strongly or somewhat approved of the law in early January, up from 37 percent when the bill was nearing passage in December.
The takeaway? Yeah, they like it more now than last month, but most people still don’t like it and even if they did they aren’t about to give Trump any credit for it.
To buttress this “finding”, the Times puts up a chart showing three groups. Total, Republicans and Democrats.
What it does not show on the chart (which you can see by using the link provided above) is independents – you know, the people most likely to sway elections.
What it shows is that there is a 7% increase in approval for the tax plan among Republicans (from 79% to 86%) and a 5% increase among Democrats (From 8% to 13%). But the TOTAL increase is higher than both. It is 9% – from 37% to 46%.
You don’t have to be a statistical expert to figure out that if the rise in approval is lower than total for part of the population, the rest of the population – i.e. independents – is what is getting it there.
Illustratively, if one-third of the sample is comprised of independents (no way to know, since the breakout is not provided), they would have to show a 15% jump to get the total up 9%.
Tell me: if independents – AKA swing voters – are up 15% on an economy issue, is that important enough to mention in this article?
Well, it isn’t mentioned.
And here’s another little factoid that is buried much further down in the article’s detail:
Many Americans won’t start to see more money in their paychecks until February, because the Internal Revenue Service issued new tax withholding guidance only last week. But a series of high-profile announcements, from companies such as Walmart and Wells Fargo, have cited the tax bill in decisions to raise wages or give employees one-time bonuses.
In other words, this rise in approval for the tax legislation has occurred BEFORE most people see it in their paychecks. Which direction do you think those approval data will head once they do? Downward?
Are leaving out the independents’ reaction to this legislation, and downplaying the approval ratings without immediately noting most people have not received its benefit (you have to go to paragraph 13 to find out about it) lies of omission? Intentional lies of omission?
You tell me.
