What are Democrats’ prospects for the 2018 midterm elections?
Well, on paper, they are poised to win the house with room to spare, while Republicans hold the Senate – due mostly to the fact that most seats up for grabs next year are Democrat rather than Republican.
But is that the way things are actually shaping up? Not if Doug E. Schoen and Andrew Stein’s analysis in the New York Post is correct.
Here are the key excerpts:
Given that President Trump’s job approval hit an all-time low of 34 percent in the most recent Gallup poll, the Democrats should be in a stronger position than ever. However, this is not the case.
Based on the last three midterm election years when there was a change in party control of the House, this year should translate into a Democratic landslide. In 1994, Republicans’ “Contract with America” helped them gain 54 seats and control of the House.In 2018, Democrats only need a net gain of 24 seats to gain control of the lower body. Based on history, that should be a piece of cake. Yet, 2018 could be different. Republicans may wind up retaining control of both chambers.
Why? Primarily, Democratic support has eroded substantially since 2009.
In 2009, the Democrats held 256 seats in the House and 55 seats in the Senate. Today they hold 194 and 46 respectively. In that time, Dems lost 21 House seats in the key Midwestern states of Pennsylvania, Ohio, Michigan, Wisconsin and Indiana, while Republicans gained 17 seats in these five states.
Failing to appeal to working-class voters in key states won by Bill Clinton and Barack Obama was a key part of Hillary Clinton’s downfall. But Hillary’s problem went well beyond swing states; it was national. Overall, Trump won 2,622 counties, while Clinton only carried 490.
Why does this matter? Because there are simply not enough coastal seats to be won for Democrats to win the House.
Very interesting. And very logical.
Look, nobody can possibly predict for sure what will happen in politics next year…or even next week. But it does stand to reason that, if Democrats are more and more disproportionately reliant on a limited number of strongholds, it will result in an impressive total for a national election, but translate into fewer and fewer victories for individual states and congressional districts.
That said, I would not at all be surprised if Democrats retake the house in 2018. The history of midterm elections is what it is. But, as Schoen and Stein so capably point out, their victory is far from a foregone conclusion.
And if the Democrat Party makes it plain that they will put Nancy Pelosi – a disast from the past – back in as speaker, I am betting voter reaction will make a Democrat house majority even less likely.
Stay tuned….
