In two days, the voters of Georgia’s 6th congressional district will elect an new congressperson. It will either be Jon Ossoff, the 29 year old Democrat who won 48% of the vote in the first round of voting (virtually all the Democrat votes), or Karen Handel, who won just 20%, but split her vote with four other major Republican candidates (Republicans won 51% of the total vote).
According to Scott Bland’s article at politico.com, 140,000 early votes have been cast – 36,000 more than in the first round. What does it mean for the ultimate result? This might tell the tale:
Handel and the GOP have focused on approximately 35,000 voters who cast GOP ballots in Georgia’s 2016 presidential primary but did not vote on April 18. Democrats have fewer outstanding base votes to chase, with about 11,000 2016 presidential primary voters in the district who didn’t cast ballots in April. Ossoff’s campaign is also seeking support from thousands of newly registered voters and some independents who are not regular voters.
If Ms. Handel has 24,000 more actual voters to bring in, you would think she’s in pretty good shape. On the other hand, Ossoff has been presented as a young,dynamic alternative – and Democrats from outside the district have donated so much money to his his campaign (making it the most expensive congressional campaign in history) that he has far more television advertising than Handel.
If the vote is close – a strong likelihood – either Ossoff will win and Democrats will tell us the fact that Ossoff won in a usually Republican district is rejection of Donald Trump/he’s on the run…
…or he will lose and Democrats will tell us the fact Ossoff came close in a usually Republican district is rejection of Donald Trump/he’s on the run.
Tuesday will be a very, very interesting night.