A week and a half has passed since I wrote that “I do not bet on political campaigns.  But if I did, I would lay odds on Mr. Roberts returning to the senate for a fourth term.”

At that time, two relatively fresh polls had Roberts\’ competition, the Democrat-running-as-an-independent Greg Orman, up by 6% (Fox) and 5% (Rasmussen) respectively….which looked good for Orman, if you didn\’t know that a previous poll, taken several days earlier (PPP) had Orman ahead by 10%.

My reasoning for expecting a Roberts win was as follows:

His admittedly stiff primary challenge came not from someone like Greg Orman, but from the other side:  hardline conservative Dr. Milton Wolf.  Wolf\’s supporters, still disgruntled that they didn\’t get a candidate even more conservative than Roberts, have not yet shown they will vote for him – which, of course, they will over Orman, who is supposedly independent, but in actuality is the Democrats\’ choice.  So, in red state Kansas, where Roberts already has three victories under his belt, how does he lose this time?  I don\’t see it.
No polls have come out in Kansas since I wrote those words, so I have no basis for what I\’m about to say other than what my gut tells me.

My gut tells me that I should not change one word of what I originally wrote.  I don\’t see Kansas voters favoring a Democrat poseur pretending to be an independent, over an incumbent Republican Senator they have already sent to Washington three times.  

We\’ll soon find out, one way or the other…..

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