Following is the first part of my “How Trump Can Win” blog from yesterday – in rust, with today’s comments in blue:
What you are about to read is not a prediction. It is an analysis of how Donald Trump can win.
Trump can win if:
-Blue collar workers break his way because they believe his “keep the jobs in the USA” promises speak to them. If they buy in, and are enthused enough to go to the polls in larger-than-usual numbers (a very real possibility), than Trump will win Ohio…and may take Michigan, Wisconsin, possibly even the usually elusive Pennsylvania, along for the ride. That is what happened for every one of these states, almost certainly including Michigan, which has yet to be called but which Trump leads in.
-His “what the hell do you have to lose” message generates just 5% more of the Black vote than Mitt Romney got in 2012 (i.e. from 6% to 11%). Exit polls show Hillary Clinton getting 88% of the Black vote. That is 5% less than the 93% Barack Obama got in 2012. They show Trump getting 8% – just 2% more than Romney did in 2012. I have no idea where the other 3% went.
Let me again point out that the possibilities-which-became-realities I described yesterday were not predictions. They were nothing more than just plain common sense.
Little wonder so many in mainstream media missed them completely.
People vote their pocketbooks.
And, Trump got traction with his “The System is Rigged – Vote against the Elites.”