A CANARY IN THE POLL MINE?

The talking points are in place:  The economy is leaping forward, ObamaCare is working wonderfully, Benghazi is two years old so it doesn\’t count, and the IRS never existed in the first place…

…which, of course, resolves that thorny issue of 2014\’s midterm elections, right?

Not if this latest poll, put out by the Pew Research Center for USA Today, has it right.

Excerpted from Pew\’s analysis:

Anational survey by the Pew Research Center and USATODAY, conducted April 23-27 among 1,501 adults (including 1,162registered voters), finds that 47% of registered voters support theRepublican candidate in their district or lean Republican, while 43%favor the Democratic candidate or lean Democratic. The trend over thepast six months in the so-called generic ballot shows that Democratshave lost ground. In October, Democrats held a six-point lead (49% to43%) in midterm voting preferences.

Whilea majority of voters (54%) say that Barack Obama will not be a factorin their vote this fall, more (26%) see their vote as a vote againstthe president than for him (16%). In February 2010, 24% of voters sawtheir vote as for Obama while about as many (20%) considered it avote against him.

At this earlypoint in the campaign, Obama inspires far less enthusiasm amongDemocratic voters than he did four years ago. Only three-in-tenDemocratic voters (31%) think of their vote as being “for” thepresident. In February 2010, 47% of Democratic voters saw their voteas an expression of support for the president.

To summarize, Republicans cleaned Democrats\’ clocks in 2010. And, if this poll is accurate, they are in even better shape now.

That said, let\’s remember the following: a) this is a single poll, b) conducted very early on, and c) in politics, things can change in a hurry.

But if I were a Democrat running in a competitive district, those poll numbers would scare the bejeezus out of me…. which probably means there are a great many out-of-body bejeezuses running around the halls of congress right now.

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *