As you may have heard, a just-released New York Times poll shows incumbent Senator Mark Pryor (D-AK) leading Republican challenger Tom Cotton by 10%.
If these data are accurate, they tell us that Pryor, who was considered particularly vulnerable this year, is actually doing quite well…and, by extension, if he\’s doing better than expected maybe other Democrats might be as well.
But what you may not be aware is that the poll is so skewed that the Times embarrassed itself by printing it.
In 2012, Mitt Romney beat President Obama in Arkansas by 24%. Therefore, any reasonable person would expect, a poll which asked who people voted for in 2012 would show roughly the same disparity in Mr. Romney\’s favor.
However, among the sample used for the New York Times poll, Mitt Romney won by only 1%.
Think about that: the Republican candidate won by 24% in the real world, but by 1% in the Times poll. Democrats did 23% better here than they did in the real world. (And its pro-Democrat skew is not restricted to Arkansas either. Click here to see for yourself.)
Anyone still wondering why Mark Pryor did so well in this poll?
If you want something to wonder about, try wondering about how the Times could have published this joke of a poll as if it had any credibility.
