There is an old joke – actually a number of old jokes – relating to an angry husband saying to his wife “I’m warning you….”. The jokes all rest on the premise that both the husband and the wife know that this is an angry comment, not a serious warning, and that nothing is going to happen.
When President Trump says “I’m warning you”, that is another story. Both friend and foe know that, for better or worse, when he says it, he means it.
So when Trump bombs the bejezus out of Iran’s Kargh Island, where almost all of its oil is processed, and tells whoever is running the country right now…
“I have chosen NOT to wipe out the Oil Infrastructure on the Island.
However, should Iran, or anyone else, do anything to interfere with the Free and Safe Passage of Ships through the Strait of Hormuz, I will immediately reconsider this decision.”
…he/she/they would be wise to take him seriously.
Which apparently is what happened.
From Geoff Earle’s article for the New York Post:
Iran said Saturday that all countries besides the US and Israel may pass through the Strait of Hormuz, in a desperate attempt at coalition busting less than a day after the US bombed military targets on its oil-critical Kharg Island.
“As a matter of fact, the Strait of Hormuz is open,” Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said.
“It is only closed to the tankers and ships belong[ing] to our enemies, to those who are attacking us and their allies. Others are free to pass,” Araghchi told MS NOW.
Araghchi noted that many ships “prefer” not to undertake the journey due to “security concerns,” but insisted, “this has nothing to do with us.”
“And I can say that the Strait is not closed, but it is only closed to American, Israeli, you know, ships and tankers, and not to others.”
Translation: the “leader(s)” of Iran heard Trump loud and clear. Now they will let oil flow through the Strait of Hormuz…but not ships from the USA or Israel…
…which means squat, because neither the USA nor Israel has any business there other than for military purposes, thus would have no reason to be there if Iran leaves it open.
You are supposed to believe that the USA and Israel are acceding to a valid threat from Iran, not that this is Iran’s scared-as-excrement response to Trump’s threat that they won’t have an oil industry unless they allow those tankers to go through. Assuming you are reasonably sentient, I expect you know which of the two it actually is.
Bottom line? Assuming this holds (and I do), watch oil prices tumble and the stock market jump tomorrow.
Y’know, meaning what you say really does count for something…
