President Trump imposed the tariffs on April 2. Since then the stock market has lost literally 10% of its entire value…..at least as things now stand.
But that immediate fallout doesn’t tell the story.
The next few weeks are crucial for understanding how Trump’s tariff gambit will or will not work out.
If countries become convinced that Trump really means it/he isn’t going to cave in because of a couple of horrific stock market drops, it’s a pretty good guess that there will be a lot of adjustments made by a lot of countries that will be favorable to the United States: i.e. they lower their tariffs on U.S. goods, we remove the tariffs we have imposed in an effort to get them to lower their tariffs, and it is business as usual – but with the U.S. in a much better position.
If that happens in a significant way, it, logically, will turn everything around relatively quickly. If it doesn’t, that will, it seems to me, require Trump to recalculate/rethink.
If I were betting? I’m no financial expert, but I do know that Donald Trump has made billions of dollars in business ventures around the world. And he has dealt, largely successfully, with the building trades in New York City, which means he knows how to play hardball. That’s got to count for a lot here.
But, speculation aside, I doubt it will be vary long before we find out if the tariffs do, or do not, work out. If they do, or do not, result in a more equitable, more favorable position for the United States regarding international trade.
Let’s hope they do.
