In 2020, Joe Biden defeated Donald Trump by an electoral landslide of 303 to 235.
But Donald Trump won the 2024 presidential election by an electoral landslide of 312 to 226.
What happened? What was the single greatest change in his 2024 performance?
The answer: Latino votes.
Take a look at these startling numbers from CNN’s exit poll data for 2020 and for 2024. See for yourself:
2020 2024
Biden Trump Biden Trump
Latino votes 65% 32% 52% 46%
As you can see, from 2020 to 2024, Trump’s Latino support jumped from 32% to 46%. That is an increase of 14%, at the expense of Kamala Harris, who lost those votes. The resulting difference is that Biden won the Latino vote by 33% and Harris won it by only 6% – a startling 27% turnaround.
And how significant is the Trump jump in Latino votes? To answer, let’s consider the swing states – the ones that, we were (correctly) told would move the election to one or the other candidate.
What happens if you leave everything else the same, but knock Trump’s Latino support back to exactly where it was in 2020 – i.e., lower the Latino total by 30%. How does affect those swing states?
Let’s look at the actual numbers to find out:
-Pennsylvania (19 electoral votes) is about 9% Latino. Trump won 50.4% to 48.6% – a difference of 1.8%. Knock the Latino vote back 27% (about 2.4%) and Trump loses.
-Georgia (16 votes) is about 11% Latino. Trump won 50.7% to 48.5% – a difference of 2.2%. Knock the Latino vote back 27% (about 3%) and Trump loses.
-North Carolina (16 votes) is about 19% Latino. Trump won 50.9% – 47.6% – a difference of 3.3%. Knock the Latino vote back % (about 5.1%) and Trump loses.
-Michigan (15 votes) is about 5% Latino. Trump won 49.7% – 48.2% – a difference of 1.5%. Knock the Latino vote back 27% (about 1.4%) and Trump wins by a tiny margin.
-Arizona (11 votes) is about 32% Latino. Trump won 52.2% to 46.7% – a difference of 5.5%. Knock the Latino vote back 27% (about 8.6%) and Trump loses.
-Wisconsin (10 votes) is about 9% Latino. Trump won 49.6% – 48.8% – a difference of 0.8%. Knock the Latino vote back 27% (about 2.4%) and Trump loses.
-Nevada (6 votes) is about 30% Latino. Trump won 50.6% to 47.5% – a difference of 3.1%. Knock the Latino vote back 27% (about 8%) and he loses.
As you can see, other than Michigan (by a hair), Trump would lose every one of those states. Even without Michigan, this would mean 78 fewer electoral votes for him and 78 more for Harris.
The result? Instead of winning in an electoral landslide of 312 – 236, Trump loses in an electoral landslide of 304 – 234.
The next question is…why have Latino voters run away from the Democrat Party in droves?
I have written about this extensively over the past years. I will repost a couple of those blogs and add further thoughts in subsequent blogs.
