Donald Trump has decisively won re-election to the presidency. He has won 295 electoral votes to 226 for Kamala Harris, with two states (Nevada and Arizona) still uncalled….both of which Trump is leading . If those leads hold he will wind up with a 312-226 electoral majority. Trump is also up by about 4,300,000 in the popular vote, which makes it likely he will win a majority there as well.
Republicans have decisively won a majority in the senate – going from a 49-51 deficit to at least a 53-47 majority (it is currently 53-45 with two races uncalled).
But what about the house of representatives? Going into this election Republicans have a 220 – 215 majority, with 3 seats currently vacant.
Well, as of this moment, Republicans are leading with 210 seats to 198 for the Democrats. There are 27 seats still uncalled – with Democrats leading in 15 and Republicans leading in 12.
If all of those leads hold, Republicans will win a 222-213 majority in the house – slightly stronger than their current status.
The only way Democrats can win is if they have a gain of 5 seats among these 27…e.g. if Democrats win every seat they are leading in, and also win 5 of the 12 seats Republicans are leading in.
Given that there are 6 especially close races (within 1%) – and Democrats are in jeopardy in 4 of those 6 – it seems extremely unlikely Democrats have any realistic chance of overcoming the Republican lead.
Bottom line? It is an excellent bet that incoming President Donald Trump will have a majority in both houses of congress for the next two years.
Now the question is…why? Why has the electorate apparently put Republicans in charge of everything this year?
Is it the weakness of the Harris/Walz ticket? The positive reaction to Trump/Vance? Dissatisfaction with Democrat performance? The weakness of Democrats’ political positions on issues – per se and/or compared to Republicans’ positions? Some combination thereof? Your guess is as good as mine.
Now let’s see what happens…and hope it is an improvement over the status quo!!
