In both of the two presidential races Donald Trump has been a part of, we have seen that he tends to “under-poll”: that is, he tends to get better results than the polling indications.
(Possibly this is is because, with most mainstream media telling us what a disaster Trump is on a daily basis, some Trump voters are disinclined tell polling organizations he is their choice.)
But now, as the 2024 presidential campaign winds down (just 15 days to go), Trump’s numbers are not only improving, but several polls show him pulling ahead.
From the fivethirtyeight.com website we have this compilation of the latest polling:
| Dates | Pollster Sponsor |
538 Pollster Rating | Result | Net result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct. 17-19 |
1.8
|
Harris
47%
49%
Trump
|
Trump +2 | |
| Oct. 15-17 |
No rating
|
Harris
49%
49%
Trump
|
Even | |
| Oct. 12-17 |
2.7
|
Harris
48%
51%
Trump
|
Trump +3 | |
| Oct. 9-17 |
No rating
|
Harris
49%
51%
Trump
|
Trump +2 | |
| Oct. 14-16 |
2.3
|
Harris
50%
49%
Trump
|
Harris +1 | |
| Oct. 14-16 |
1.1
|
Harris
45%
46%
Trump
|
Trump +1 | |
| Oct. 14-16 |
2.9
|
Harris
50%
49%
Trump
|
Harris +1 | |
| Oct. 14-16 |
1.8
|
Harris
49%
46%
Trump
|
Harris +3 | |
| Sept. 27-Oct. 16 |
No rating
|
Harris
53%
47%
Trump
|
Harris +6 | |
| Oct. 12-15 |
2.9
|
Harris
49%
45%
Trump
|
Harris +4 |
Look, I cheerfully acknowledge that political polling is very often inaccurate. And that, as fast as trends go one way, they can reverse field and go the other way.
But, with this little amount of time to go, if I were on the Harris/Walz side of things you can bet I’d be worried as hell about how things are trending now.
What does Kamala Harris have left? What has she thrown at Trump that people haven’t already heard? What can she say about herself that people haven’t already heard?
If there is anything, it better come hard and fast.
