hamas: those nice folks who want Israel obliterated, every Jew – not just in Israel but worldwide – dead, and who teach their children the glory of dying while killing Jews…
…is suddenly dealing with Israel, even making concessions.
How did that happen?
Well, Israel’s Foreign Minister, Israel Katz, thinks he knows. And, if you ask me, the reasoning he offers in Elliot Katz’s just-published article for the Wall Street Journal, is both highly intelligent and eminently logical.
Here is how how he views the current situation in Gaza:
Something changed in Gaza. After months of rejecting Israeli cease-fire proposals and holding out for more concessions, Hamas has begun to offer concessions of its own. Israel is closer than ever to freeing many of its remaining hostages, and it has gained the leverage to demand terms that protect the strategic gains of the war.
If you believe the media drumbeat—that Israel’s war effort is futile, its strategy absent, and its political isolation growing—it’s impossible to account for the breakthrough. Why, after months of contemptuous stalling, did Hamas begin to bend?
“Two reasons,” says Israel Katz, Israel’s foreign minister, in an interview at the Journal’s office. “One, they understand now that there will be no cease-fire without a hostage deal. Two, the IDF is acting aggressively against the terrorists in Gaza. Especially important was entering Rafah,” Hamas’s stronghold at the southern end of the strip.
Israel cut off Hamas’s supply routes and now holds Hamas “by the throat,” as Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu recently put it. Senior terrorists are dropping at a faster clip as Israeli intelligence closes in; half of Hamas’s military leadership has been eliminated. Even after a large Israeli bombardment to kill Hamas’s military chief, Mohammed Deif, who is considered unlikely to have survived, Hamas barely attacked in response and rushed to clarify that it isn’t leaving negotiations. “Hamas is under much more pressure now,” Mr. Katz says. “That’s what made the difference.”
Excellent analysis. And Mr. Katz’s view of how hezbollah – another terrorist group with similar aims that operates out of southern Lebanon – is equally excellent:
Mr. Katz warns that “all-out war” is very close. “We don’t want it, and maybe they don’t want it. But it can’t remain like this,” he says. “I’m telling you, press Iran. If you want to prevent war, the way to prevent war is to pressure Iran and explain to Iran what the cost will be.”
Contrary to what the West assumes, “a cease-fire in Gaza and a hostage deal will not prevent a war with Hezbollah in the northern front,” he says. “Israel won’t agree to ‘quiet for quiet’ anymore.” Quiet won’t be enough for 70,000 evacuated Israelis to return to their homes in the north of Israel. They need real security, which requires Hezbollah to leave its perch in southern Lebanon, demilitarizing the buffer zone as the U.N. mandated in 2006.
Can Hezbollah be persuaded to pull back its forces? “I doubt it,” Mr. Katz says. “My personal view is it’ll happen either through an Israeli military response or if Iran orders Hezbollah to withdraw.”
In the end, Mr. Katz says, Hezbollah’s Secretary-General Hassan Nasrallah “doesn’t understand Israel. He has an image of weakness”—but he’s wrong. “We don’t want war, because we don’t want anything in Lebanon. But if it will be war, it will not be like in Gaza,” where the presence of hostages restrains Israel’s use of force. “About 80% of our air force isn’t being used right now,” he says. If Iran doesn’t pull Hezbollah from the brink, it will be.
There is a lot more in Mr. Kaufman’s (necessarily lengthy) article that is just as important/worthwhile. I strongly urge you to use the link I’ve provided (here it is again) and read every word.
And then wait for the rest of the world – the (not particularly large) part that gives a damn whether Israel exists – to catch up.
Expect the wait to be very long.
