Ken Berwitz
Let\’s start with the end.
Who is the winner of last night\’s Democrat Presidential debate? To quote a famous spouse of one of the candidates, it depends on what “is” is.
If what we\’re talking about is who did the best job debating, the winner – based on every post debate poll I have seen, is Bernie Sanders, hands down. In the New York Daily News poll, 65% said he won, with Hillary Clinton far behind at 20%. In the Time Magazine poll, Sanders was at 56%. Several other post-debate polls from lesser sources show the same result.
So Hillary Clinton got her backside kicked and is on the ropes, right? Joe Biden has the ball and an open field in front of him, right?
Uh….no, and no.
Hillary Clinton won this debate. Why? Because she was scripted to near perfection. Absent a couple of notable exceptions where she stumbled and bumbled, Ms. Clinton was as slick as salmon rubbed with olive oil, and always seemed in control, even when she was lying to our faces (the Associated Press collected a bunch of her lies – click here to see them).
Because Hillary Clinton was so poised and glib, coupled with mainstream media\’s hunger for her to do well (e.g. the Today Show\’s coverage this morning treated her like a queen – they did everything but beg to pick out furniture with her. And there are reports that the press pool broke out into laughter and applause when Bernie Sanders said we should “forget about the damn emails”), she came out of this debate far stronger than she went in.
Bernie Sanders was great…for who and what he is. We get it, Bernie. Rich people are the enemy, they\’re holding everyone down, we have to redistribute wealth, everything should be “free”…meaning the rich should pay for everyone else because that is their “fair share”, etc. etc. etc. If you love socialism, you love this man. And the partisan Democrat audience – sitting in a luxury Las Vegas hotel owned by a fabulously wealthy entrepreneur – apparently loves, or at any rate has convinced itself that it loves, socialism.
Sanders can win the first couple of primaries. And then comes the acid test. If he can do well in even one of the southern states which come next, his campaign has legs…and will send a shiver down Ms. Clinton\’s spine. If he quickly falls back (which current polls suggest will be the case), Bernie Sanders will forever be seen as an entertaining flash in the pan.
However, all of this may change if Joe Biden comes into the race (more on Biden further on).
As for the other three:
-Martin O\’Malley: I have spent months wondering why Martin O\’Malley, a two term Mayor of Baltimore, two term Governor of Maryland,who is just 52 years old (at least 15 years younger than everyone else on that stage), photogenic, and with all of the leftward positions guaranteed to make hardline Democrats swoon with delight, has gotten nowhere in the polls.Now I know.Not only is O\’Malley a plodding, stumbling speaker compared to Sanders and Clinton, but he has about as much charisma as a used coffee filter with the grounds still inside. The Beatles nailed this guy almost 50 years ago, when they recorded “Nowhere Man”. It could be Martin O\’Malley\’s campaign song.-Jim Webb – Jim Webb reminds me of Joe Lhota, the Republican who ran for Mayor of New York against Bill de Blasio. Very smart, very talented, very accomplished….but with no presence at all. Standing there with a solemn, even angry look, and talking monotonally….with too many references to a military background that clearly did not play well to his audience….made Webb a non-starter right from the git-go. And he\’s still at the starting gate now.-Lincoln Chafee – Like a caricature of an amiable loser on one of those drama shows (he\’d be perfect for The Good Wife). Smiling, sincere, mild as decaffeinated latte, thinking he has the right answers, the principled answers, even if he doesn\’t have a clue how to move them forward and no one is listening anyway. Lincoln Chafee could not motivate a lincoln log.
Now, finally, we come to Joe Biden.
I assumed that Joe Biden, if he is going to run, sat out this debate on the theory that the others would beat up on Hillary Clinton and he would then come riding in on his white horse to save the day.
Well, Hillary did just about as well as it is possible for Hillary to do (that is no endorsement, believe me, just an honest assessment). Which obviously complicates things for him.
I suspect that donors who held back because they feared Ms. Clinton\’s downward spiral would continue may be heartened enough to stick with her now. If so, just about every dollar it means for Hillary Clinton is one less dollar for Joe Biden (if they wanted to give to Bernie Sanders, they\’d have done it already).
Now Biden has no choice. If he\’s going to run, he\’s got to get in quickly, or risk that the possible reversal of Ms. Clinton\’s fortunes, based on her performance last night, will continue – and every day he waits will make his chances more remote.
He\’s got to declare his candidacy, and tell Democrats that, despite a lot of cheering for individual candidates on individual issues, none of them knows how to get things done the way he does.
Stay tuned.
