How can a presidential poll pitting President Biden against former President Trump be bad news for both of them?
Here’s how.
First let’s look at the poll data, via David Rufful’s article for America Insider (via msn.com):
Former president Donald Trump currently leads Joe Biden in a hypothetical 2024 presidential election matchup, according to a CBS News/YouGov poll and a Harvard-Harris poll.
Trump’s biggest advantage is among independent voters where he holds a double-digit lead at 57% to Biden’s 42%.
Overall, the poll found that 50% of 4,002 U.S. adults sampled would vote for Trump in a rematch of the 2020 presidential election while 49% would vote for Biden.
Only 1% of voters are undecided, the poll found.
The poll also found that only 28% of voters think Biden is physically and mentally healthy enough to serve as president. The majority of Americans say Trump is healthy enough to serve a second term.
It is certainly not hard to figure out why this is a problem for Joe Biden. If the data are accurate (always a huge “if” for national polls, even one with over 4,000 respondents), not only is Trump ahead (albeit by just 1%), but he is far ahead among independent voters – the folks whose willingness to swing in one direction or another is what usually settles close elections.
Add to this the fact that a minuscule 28% think Biden is physically and mentally capable of being president, and you have a disastrous candidate; one you had better find a way to get rid of.
But how much better is it for Trump?
With a major advantage among independent voters, and against a candidate whom less than 30% of the country considers physically/mentally capable of being president…he is “ahead” by 1%. A statistical tie.
If Trump cannot surge past a disastrous candidate like Biden – if he is virtually even with a candidate people don’t even think can perform the job, let alone perform it capably – what does it say about his standing with the voters? With just 1% separating them, who is to say Trump would even win against disastrous Joe Biden?
And – here’s the kicker – what if Biden is induced to bow out and not run for a second term? What if the Democrats put up a different candidate?
Unless Democrats put up someone the country would consider even worse (and how much worse could anyone be than where Biden is in this poll), wouldn’t Trump be easy pickings? If he’s tied with a disaster, isn’t it logical he’d do worse against a better candidate?
I’ll say it again; this poll is bad news for both candidates.
Now, what are the two parties going to do about it?
The answer should be interesting, to say the least.
