From Megan Sheets’ article for London’s Daily Mail, we have this:
Despite efforts by security forces south of the border to stop a migrant caravan, Mexican Foreign Minister Marcelo Ebrard says no agreement was reached on tariffs during Wednesday’s White House meeting with Vice President Mike Pence and Secretary of State Mike Pompeo.
Ebrard says both countries will continue talks on Thursday and try to stave off President Donald Trump’s threatened tariffs on all Mexican goods flowing into the United States.
Trump, who is in Europe to commemorate the 75th anniversary of the D-Day landings, tweeted: ‘Immigration discussions at the White House with representatives of Mexico have ended for the day. Progress is being made, but not nearly enough!
‘Border arrests for May are at 133,000 because of Mexico & the Democrats in Congress refusing to budge on immigration reform.
‘Further talks with Mexico will resume tomorrow with the understanding that, if no agreement is reached, Tariffs at the 5% level will begin on Monday, with monthly increases as per schedule.
‘The higher the Tariffs go, the higher the number of companies that will move back to the USA!’
Trump’s strategy is very clear: if Mexico doesn’t get serious about this, tariffs will rise, rise again, and get to a point where the cost of Mexican goods will be prohibitively high. The result will be higher costs of Mexican-originated goods to the USA, thus lower sales…and a major reason for USA companies currently producing goods in Mexico to move their production elsewhere – maybe back to the states.
Will any of this happen? It’s a pretty long stretch to think so.
But – and this, it seems clear, is where President Trump sees his leverage – can Mexico take the chance that it will? Would Mexico risk a devastating blow to its economy, for the “right” to let illegals pass through the country on the way to the United States? Why would Mexico do that?
There is, of course, the possibility that Donald Trump will either not run for re-election in 2020, or will run and lose. But – again – is Mexico willing to take a hit like this for a year and a half, in the hope Trump will lose? And then another four years (at least) if he doesn’t?
Then, there is the likelihood that US companies currently doing business in Mexico – huge losers if this tariff comes to pass – are heavily pressuring the government to play ball with Trump. That’s got to count for something in these negotiations.
I have no crystal ball. But I find it very difficult to believe Mexico will thumb its nose and Trump and not agree to get serious about securing the border.
We’ll probably know one way or another before the week is out.
