What you are about to read is not a prediction. It is an analysis of how Donald Trump can win.
Trump can win if:
-Blue collar workers break his way because they believe his “keep the jobs in the USA” promises speak to them. If they buy in, and are enthused enough to go to the polls in larger-than-usual numbers (a very real possibility), than Trump will win Ohio…and may take Michigan, Wisconsin, possibly even the usually elusive Pennsylvania, along for the ride.
-His “what the hell do you have to lose” message generates just 5% more of the Black vote than Mitt Romney got in 2012 (i.e. from 6% to 11%).
How important is this? Look at North Carolina – a state that is about 22% Black. If Trump got an additional 5% of the Black vote, it would give him about 1.1% more of the entire state and Hillary Clinton about 1.1% less – a turnaround of 2.2% in Trump’s favor. In a close election that could very well be the difference.
Same with Florida (15% Black), where a 5% increase would result in about 1.8% in Trump’s favor, and Michigan (also about 15% Black/1.8% turnaround).
-The enthusiasm level of Black voters is appreciably lower than it was for Barack Obama in 2008 and 2012. It will not matter if Hillary Clinton is the overwhelming choice of Black voters if there are not enough Black voters to push her across the finish line.
In this regard, it stands to reason that Black Trump supporters will be more motivated than Black Clinton supporters, because to be a Black Trump supporter is to walk into a hornet’s nest of opposition, even anger, from family and friends. People who are courageous enough to suffer that near-certain probability are certainly likely to back it up by going to the polls.
Will any of this happen? I do not know and I’m not saying I do.
But these are realistic possibilities, which we’ll probably know about one way or the other by mid-evening.
If these scenarios occur, we will probably have our first “never spent a day in politics until now” President since Dwight Eisenhower.
If not? Get used to saying “Madame President.”
