Who is controlling the Strait of Hormuz? Two sides seem to think they do, and one of them has to be wrong.
Let’s explore.
First, President Trump’s declaration, from Jack Buckby’s article at National Security Journal, via msn.com:
“We are reinstating THE IRANIAN BLOCKADE, so named because it is only stopping Iran’s ships or customers from entering or leaving. All other countries will have fair and open use of the Strait. The U.S.A. will be, from this point forward, known as “THE GUARDIAN OF THE HORMUZ STRAIT,” but as such, and as a matter of FAIRNESS, will be reimbursed, at the rate of 20% on all cargo shipped, for any and all costs necessary to do the job of providing safety and security to this very volatile section of the world.”
The president also announced that the “process and formation” of the blockade and new management for the strait “will begin immediately.”
Next, Iran’s response:
Iran continues to insist that it controls the Strait of Hormuz and that Washington has no authority to determine how the waterway is managed. On Monday, Iran’s top joint military command rejected Trump’s announcements.
Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps spokesman Hossein Mohebbi also said that Iranian forces will “force” the U.S. and its allies to “surrender.”
“We continue to assert our authority and control over the Strait of Hormuz with strength and power, and we will force foreigners and their allies to surrender to the will of the Iranian people,” he said in comments published by Iranian state media.
Ok, which side do you think is more likely to be in control? More likely to make their claims stick?
One way or another, we should get the answer very quickly.’
My reaction? I’m betting on the side that still has a functioning air force and navy.
And I’m hoping – HOPING – that this signals the end of pretending Iran can be trusted to make good on anything it says.
