If you want to read an excellent analysis of the attack on Venezuela and its fallout, you should read Samuel Ramani’s commentary for London’s Daily Telegraph.
Here is the link to Mr. Ramani’s article, which I hope you will use to read every word. But, for the meanwhile, let me show you how it ends:
Over the past week alone, Venezuelan company EANSA was blacklisted for assembling Iranian drones and the US has chased Russia’s Bella-1 shadow fleet oil tanker away from Venezuela’s shores. As Iran faces its own mass demonstrations, Russia is mired in Ukraine and China has limited military resources in Latin America, Maduro is unlikely to receive material support from his authoritarian partners.
Supporters of regime change also hope that Maduro’s overthrow will ameliorate Venezuela’s economic crisis. The Venezuelan bolivar has plummeted by 80 per cent in the space of year and Venezuela’s estimated 270 per cent inflation rate is the highest in the world. It is a tragic irony that the country with the world’s largest proven oil reserves has an 84 per cent poverty rate and the easing of sanctions against Venezuela could help reverse this trend.
While the benefits of ousting Maduro are manifold, the risks of a poorly defined military intervention could outweigh them. Trump’s decision to ignore Maduro’s diplomatic appeals and embrace a war footing has provoked fierce anti-American backlash across Latin America.
Although Venezuela has a robust civil society and valiant opposition leaders, the pathway from externally imposed regime change to democratic consolidation is not clear.
As they face similarly dire economic conditions and are in the crosshairs of Marco Rubio’s freedom agenda, Maduro’s allies in Cuba and Nicaragua could embrace even more repressive tactics.
Combined with the aftershocks of regime change in Venezuela, the Trump administration could unwittingly trigger an intensified Latin American refugee crisis.
Trump’s military actions in Venezuela belatedly fulfil his promises to the country’s beleaguered opposition. Without clearer planning, they could stain his coveted legacy as a peace president.
There they are. The benefits and the risks. Laid out about as well as they could be.
So how do you see this? Where do you see it going?
I assume we, of course, will be watching closely every day, to find the answers…which certainly can change for the positive or the negative as events unfold.
Let’s keep an open mind, and talk about them as they occur.
