As we traverse the last two weeks before midterm elections, is the country breaking Republican?
Based on the just-released Associated Press/GfK poll, that answer is pretty easy to see.
From Jennifer Agiesta and Emily Swanson\’s article:
Amongall adults, 38 percent say they\’d like the Democrats to wind up incontrol of Congress, to 36 percent for the Republicans. But the GOPholds a significant lead among those most likely to cast ballots: 47percent of these voters favor a Republican controlled-Congress, 39percent a Democratic one. That\’s a shift in the GOP\’s favor since anAP-GfK poll in late September, when the two parties ran about evenlyamong likely voters.
Womenhave moved in the GOP\’s direction since September. In last month\’sAP-GfK poll, 47 percent of female likely voters said they favored aDemocratic-controlled Congress while 40 percent wanted theRepublicans to capture control. In the new poll, the two parties areabout even among women, 44 percent prefer the Republicans, 42 percentthe Democrats
Hooboy.
If these data are accurate, in just one month\’s time:
-Republicans have jumped from a virtual tie between the two parties among likely voters (which, in and of itself, would be good news for Republicans, who usually lag in this measure even during years when they do well) to an 8% lead;
-Among women – who, along with Black voters are absolutely critical to Democrat chances – a 7% lead for Democrats has not only disappeared, but been supplanted by a 2% lead for Republicans. That\’s a 9% turnaround.
In reading these data it is important to note that, even if 100% accurate, they are from one poll at one point in time. The next poll/polls might indicate that circumstances are far more salutary for Democrats; stranger things have certainly happened.
But if the findings of this poll are replicated in other polls as well, the possibility is very real that Democrats are going to be on the receiving end of an epic clock-cleaning next month.
Stay tuned.
