I show political polls in this blog for two reasons:
1) Even if inaccurate, polls done the same way each time, thus with the same inaccuracies each time, can indicate movements in voter sentiment even if the numbers themselves are not correct;
2) People obsess on polls, so I have to.
But every now and then I like to show you why I have a problem with them. And here is an excellent example.
Yesterday, two new major polls came out, assessing the Kansas senate race between Republican incumbent Pat Roberts and “Independent” (in reality, Democrat) challenger Greg Orman.
-The NBC News/Marist poll shows Orman leading Roberts by a whopping 10%; 48% to 38%. Given that the last few polls showed Orman leading by 5% – 6%, this means Orman is pulling away and the race is about over;
-The CBS News/NY Times poll shows Roberts and Orman in a dead heat; 40% to 40%. Given that the last few polls showed Orman leading by 5% – 6%, this means Roberts is making his move, has drawn even, and has the momentum going into the last month of the campaign.
I rest my case.
