I would not have said this in 2008 or 2012…..but for the current election year, Republicans have no better friend than President Barack Obama.
With his plunging overall approval ratings, disastrous ratings on handling terrorism and immigration, and, most recently, his too-little-too-late recognition of the ebola threat, the last thing most Democrat candidates want is for the 2014 election to be about Barack Obama – as proven by how many of the party\’s senate candidates are running against him, and how many Republican senate candidates are moving heaven and earth to tie the election to him.
So, with this dynamic in play, what does Mr. Obama say to a crowd at Northwestern University last night?
“Iam not on the ballot this fall. Michelle\’s pretty happy aboutthat. But make no mistake: these policies are on the ballot. Every single one of them.”
Wow. That is great. GREAT.
If you happen to be a Republican, that is.
Trust me on this one: Republicans in every competitive race in which the Democrat is distancing him/herself from President Obama (or, put another way, pretty much every competitive race, period), will be using that clip for the next month.
I can hear them now:
“Myopponent is desperately trying to pretend this race is not about BarackObama\’s failed policies. But that, of course, is not so. In Barack Obama\’s own words, \’Make no mistake. These policies are on theballot. Every single one of them\’.
“So ifyou like the way things are going under Barack Obama and want another Senator voting for his policies, vote for my opponent. If you do not like the way things are going under Barack Obama and donot want another Senator voting for his policies, vote for me. itis as simple as that”.
But wait. Maybe Mr. Obama is onto something. Maybe I\’m all wet about this, and his innate popularity, the love and affection citizens in swing states have for him, will make this statement a rallying cry which will sweep Senate Democrats into office.
Well, let\’s look at seven swing states, which can go either way, and see. Using the leftward, Democrat-friendly huffingtonpost.com\’s compilation of poll data, we find that:
-In Colorado, the last five state polls show President Obama with an average approval rating of 42%*
-In Iowa, 41%
-In Louisiana, 38%
-In Alaska, 38%
-In Kansas, 37%
-In Kentucky, 34%
-In Arkansas, 33%
Does that look like a tie-in to President Obama will help the candidates in those states? I don\’t think so. Do you?
So why would Mr. Obama ever have said what he did?
Well, how about arrogance. How about an inability to believe that anything he does is wrong, or would be rejected by his adoring public – so much so that he would bring Democrats who are trying to distance themselves from him right back to his coattails…the ones which, electorally do not appear to exist this year?
Look, there\’s still a month to the election and anything can happen. But if this were election day, I suspect that several Republican senatorial (not to mention congressional and gubernatorial) candidates would owe Barack Obama a steak dinner and a bottle of good champagne.
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*In Colorado, two of the last five polls taken were by Rasmussen – which, since Scott Rasmussen left the organization, has become a consistent outlier poll in favor of Democrats. For Colorado, each of the two polls within this average show Mr. Obama at 47%. No other poll from any source in the past three months has him above 43%
