Here is a factor that bears on the possibility of Republicans taking over the Senate this year, that I haven\’t seen from anyone else.
So, me being me, I\’m jumping right in.
Currently, the state of West Virginia has two Democrat Senators:
One, a highly popular Senator who is retiring, is Jay Rockefeller. The Democrat vying for this seat is Natalie Tennant, and her Republican challenger is Shelley Moore Capito.
West Virginia has, in recent years, turned appreciably more Republican. There are reasons this has happened, but that is for another blog. My point here is only that it is a fact – one which, I am sure, Ms. Tennant would ruefully concede, since Ms. Capito leads her by something like 20% in the polls.
When a popular West Virginia Democrat incumbent like Jay Rockefeller endorses the candidate to succeed him, and she still is down so far that it seems a near impossibility for her to even come close to winning, then politicians in that state are going to take notice.
Now let\’s talk about incumbent Joe Manchin.
Manchin is what some people call a “blue dog” Democrat. That means he is to the right of most Democrats. In actuality, Manchin is a very blue dog Democrat. On several key issues, he is a political conservative in a party that barely tolerates people who think the way he does.
Specifically, Joe Manchin is pro-life. He is pro-business. He gets a “A” rating from the National Rifle Association. Fiscally he is somewhere in between the two parties. Ditto for social issues.
In other words, Manchin, though not really a Republican, is not really a Democrat either.
But he is an intelligent man who sees where the state he represents is going.
What if Republicans win 5 seats in November….and approach Manchin, offering him, say, a committee chair of his choice (one he does not currently have as a Democrat) if he will do a “Jim Jeffords” and switch parties, thus throwing the senate to Republicans?
I have no inside information on this. I have no idea if Manchin would be approached, if he already has been approached (this appeal could be made even if Republicans turn out not to need him for a majority) or whether he would be receptive to the idea.
But I do know that, if I were a Republican, I would be speaking to Manchin about switching over. And if I were Democrat, I would be damn worried about it.
