How far off were the so-called “experts” on this election?
Yesterday, Time magazine (is it still an actual magazine?) compiled the predictions some of them made – which, as you will quickly see, they wish they hadn’t.
Here are the numbers (but click here to read Time’s commentary on them:
Associated Press
Nate Silver and FiveThirtyEight
Princeton Election Consortium
Larry Sabato
Rothenberg & Gonzales
Moody’s Analytics
Los Angeles Times
Impressed? Me neither.
The one that stands out most to me is the Los Angeles Times – whose own poll ended with Trump having a 3% lead over Clinton nationally. While it is possible, I suppose, for a candidate losing by 3% to eke out an electoral win, I have to admit I’m having a little trouble undertanding how the 3% loser can wipe up the floor with her opponent and win alost twice as many electoral votes.
Any help you can give me will be greatly appreciated. But, to tell you the truth, I’m not expecting much.
