The bad news for Donald Trump/good news for Hillary Clinton: several national polls show a reversal of the last week’s surge for Mr. Trump and either a new lead, or the lengthening of an existing lead, for Ms. Clinton.
The bad news for Hillary Clinton/good news for Donald Trump: several state-by-state polls show Mr. Trump ahead in his crucial must-win states (e.g. Florida, Ohio, North Carolina) and has closed to within realistic striking distance in several states Ms. Clinton must have – most particularly, the “dust-bowl states of Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin.
What will decide this race? If these poll numbers are correct, the answer is turnout/enthusiasm level. It does not matter whether voters prefer one candidate over the other, unless those voters show up at the polls on election day.
My advice?
Do yourself a favor: ignore the pundits on either side and just watch the results. These people, and their incessant polls, are perfectly capable of being wrong even in conventional elections. Illustratively, wasn’t Mitt Romney ahead before the 2012 votes were counted?)
You don’t know until the vote totals are in. Period.
